The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025, raising it from 3.0% to 3.4%, according to its July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The Fund also lifted its 2026 forecast for Nigeria to 3.2%, up from the previous 2.7%.
The update comes amid broader optimism for the global economy, with the IMF upgrading its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026—modest increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to its April projections.
Sub-Saharan Africa also saw improved prospects, with growth expected to reach 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. “Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF noted in the report.
Reacting to the revised outlook, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the IMF’s 3.4% projection aligns with their internal estimates. “I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services,” he said.
Abidoye, however, cautioned that while the growth revision is encouraging, it remains insufficient for significant poverty reduction. “The range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism,” he added.
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