Former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai has forecast that President Bola Tinubu will, at best, secure third place in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential elections.
Speaking on Channels Television, El-Rufai expressed skepticism about Tinubu making it to a runoff round, suggesting the vote may not be decided on the first ballot.
El-Rufai, once one of Tinubu’s most ardent supporters, revealed that despite his efforts, he failed to deliver Kaduna State’s votes to Tinubu in the last election. He urged the public to avoid illusions, stating plainly that the worst-case scenario is a fragmented election result requiring a second round of voting.
He emphasized that Tinubu’s path to victory is blocked, based on careful calculations and thorough analysis.
El-Rufai dismissed the idea that control over state machinery would guarantee success.
This may force a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not feature in that deciding stage because he will, at best, rank third…president Tinubu might believe his financial influence and backing from institutions like INEC and security forces could secure a win. But history offers a cautionary tale, in 2015, Goodluck Jonathan had these advantages and still lost. The current outlook is even grimmer – El-Rufai
He went further to counter claims about Tinubu’s impeccable electoral record, saying his reputation as an unbeatable strategist warrants reconsideration.
The former governor of Kaduna state emphasized that leadership demands humility and realism, and that the lessons of the past should shape the course ahead.
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